March 18, 2011

2011 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, 3rd Round (32 teams), with team attendances.

Filed under: NCAA Men's Basketball — admin @ 9:19 pm

2011 March Madness map, round of 32

CBS Sports/College BK home.
ESPN/College Basketball home.

Photo credit- Justin Edmonds/Getty Images via, here.

The big upset in the Second Round (round of 64) was in a match-up between two teams from Kentucky, with the #13-seeded Morehead State Eagles beating the #4-seeded Louisville Cardinals by one point, courtesy of a three-pointer with 5.4 seconds left by Morehead State senior guard Demonte Harper.

I found out that, going by the accumulated 26-year Tournament history of all round of 64 pairings, there was about a 1-in-5 chance that a 13th-seeded team would defeat a 4th-seeded team. [the numbers being based on results since the Tournament expanded to a 64-team field, in 1985]. Statistically, it was a 21.15 percent chance that the #13 would beat the #4 seed. This section of the ‘NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Championship’ page at en.wikipedia has a list of all the outcomes of the round of 64 teams’ pairings…(‘First-round games/Upsets‘).

I decided to just go ahead and update that list to include the 2011 Second Round (round of 64) results.
Below is the List of results in terms of the Seedings in the modern-era/round of 64 teams, in the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament (1985-2011)…


As you can see, the results follow a mathematical curve with 2 deviations, or anomalies…
1). There are slightly less #5th-seeded teams winning over their #12th-seeded opponents than the next set of pairings (which is 6th seed vs. 11th seed).
2). An occurrence of the #9-seeded teams beating the #8-seeded teams more times in total (6 more times over 108 games).
My interpretation…
#5 vs. #12 anomaly – [The 12th-seeded teams beating their #5th-seeded opponents more times total than the next category (of 11th-seed vs. 6th-seed).] I would say that is just an example of how difficult it actually is to evaluate a team’s actual strength, and that in a few more seasons, that 12-seed-versus-5-seed statistical blip will even out (as it started to do this season, with only one of the four 12th-vs. 5th seed outcomes – Richmond over Vanderbilt – going to the 12th-seeded team).
#8 vs. #9 anomaly – How much difference, strength-wise, will there be between any given #8 team versus any given #9 team? There will be very little difference. So the psychological aspect then kicks in, with the players on the #9 team taking their slightly-lower status as a “diss”, and taking it out on their #8-seeded opponent, and pulling off a slight upset.

First Round upsets…
#13-seed Morehead Eagles over # 4-seed Louisville, by 1 point.
#12-seed Richmond Spiders over #5-seed Vanderbilt, by 3 points.
#11-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs over #6-seed St. John’s, by 15 points.
#11-seed VCU Rams over #6-seed Georgetown, by 18 points (!).
#10-seed Florida State Seminoles over #7-seed Texas A&M, by 7 points.
#9-seed Illinois Fighting Illini over #8-seed UNLV, by 11 points.

Here are some lowest-seeding milestones in NCAA Basketball Tournament history…
Lowest-seeded team to win an NCAA Basketball Tournament title – 8th-seeded Villanova Wildcats, in 1985.
Lowest-seeded team to make it to the Final Four – 11th-seeded LSU Tigers in 1986.
Lowest-seeded team to make the Regional Finals (aka Elite Eight) – Missouri Tigers in 2002.
Lowest-seeded team to make it to the Regional Semifinals (aka the Sweet Sixteen) – [tie] 14th seed – Cleveland State Vikings in 1986, and Chattanooga Mocs in 1997.
Thanks to the contributors to the pages at en.wikipedia,org, ‘2010 NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament‘.
Attendances from, here.

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